No illusions for incumbents in wake of Rostenkowski win

by J. Jennings Moss

Originally published March 17, 1994 in The Washington Times.

Building a campaign around the power of incumbency worked for Rep. Dan Rostenkowski in Tuesday’s primary, but other lawmakers should have no illusions the same strategy will guarantee a win for them.

That’s the verdict of several analysts in the wake of Mr. Rostenkowski’s surprisingly strong showing.

Other lawmakers – even those who have been in Congress for multiple terms – can’t claim they secured federal dollars for freeway construction or a surplus helicopter for the city’s fire department, as Mr. Rostenkowski did.

“I don’t think anybody should take any solace [in the Rostenkowski win],” says Tom King, a Democratic campaign consultant. “If any incumbents read that it’s clout and what committee they’re on, they would be misreading the Rostenkowski victory. . . . It’s what clout brings. It’s the outcome, not the process.”

Mr. Rostenkowski, the Chicago Democrat who arrived in Congress 35 years ago, captured 50 percent of the vote in the five-man, winner-take-all race. His closest competitor, state Sen. John Cullerton, got 30 percent.

With the cloud of a criminal investigation hanging over him, Mr. Rostenkowski relied on a campaign that told voters they would be losing a powerful friend and a strong ally of President Clinton’s if they ousted him.

Thom Serafin, a senior Rostenkowski strategist, summed the race up this way – “Do you want a congressman that does photo-ops and that uses a blow dryer or do you want somebody who just does the job? . . . It was an easy decision for voters.”

There were other factors as well that make it difficult to draw national conclusions. The incumbent ran in a crowded primary, which dispersed the anti-Rostenkowski vote; his chief rival stumbled in the campaign’s final week; he had the power of the Chicago Democratic machine behind him; and he had a hefty war chest.

But one lesson that political consultants and analysts say some incumbents can take from the race is that if they have accomplishments, they should talk about them.

Republican consultant Jim Innocenzi says congressmen who are “back benchers,” whether they are Republicans or Democrats, will have problems in 1994.

Republican members who fall into that category “better wake up and smell the coffee or they’ll be arm-in-arm with the Democratic incumbents leaving town. We’ve got a few.”

Several analysts had put Rep. Philip M. Crane, Illinois Republican, in that category and predicted defeat for him this year. But the 25-year incumbent won Tuesday in a four-person race by capturing 40 percent of the vote, 6 points ahead of his closest rival.

In the only other batch of state primaries so far this year, Rep. Craig Washington lost by more than a 2-1 margin in a Texas Democratic primary. His opponent strongly criticized Mr. Washington, who was elected in a 1989 special election, for not taking care of his district and voting against such Texas projects as the space station.

Officials from both parties agree that Democratic incumbents will have a harder time this election year than Republicans will have.

“It’s a very poisonous climate and a tough one to run on,” says a Democratic strategist who asked not to be identified. “They’ve got to go back to the public and say, `I’m listening and paying attention to you.’ . . . They’ve got to run on accountability to voters.”

Democrats already were expecting a rough road. Earlier this year, a poll commissioned for the party found a lower regard for Congress now than two years ago and found that the public equates Congress with the Democrats. In the past, the public saw both parties at fault for Congress’ woes.

Rep. Bill Paxon of New York, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, says one sign that incumbents are acknowledging political problems is that they are announcing their retirements at a faster rate than in 1992, which saw a total of 65 retirements.”

Many of these incumbents are not running because they want to get out of town one step ahead of the political hangman,” Mr. Paxon says